Rwanda has experienced a significant shift in its trade dynamics, with Kenya surpassing Tanzania to become the country’s second-largest source of imports, following China. This change, highlighted in the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda’s (NISR) October 2024 Formal External Trade in Goods report, indicates a major shift in regional trade patterns. Tanzania, historically Rwanda’s main partner due to its proximity and the use of Dar es Salaam port, has now been overtaken by Kenya.
Imports from Kenya surged to $121.45 million, a 361.43% increase compared to the same month in 2023. This positions Kenya just behind China, which accounted for $142.08 million in imports, reflecting a 34.95% rise. In contrast, imports from Tanzania fell sharply to $57.38 million, marking both a 39.04% decline month-to-month and a 30.16% drop year-on-year.
Several factors contribute to this shift, including strengthened trade relations between Rwanda and Kenya, efforts to reduce trade barriers, and Rwanda’s push for trade route diversification to reduce reliance on any single country. The Northern Corridor, passing through Kenya, is increasingly being used for imports.
The decline in Rwanda’s imports from Tanzania is further complicated by growing trade tensions, particularly over Rwanda’s dairy exports. Tanzania has imposed non-tariff barriers on Rwandan milk, citing local regulatory and quality standards, which has disrupted a long-standing trade relationship, despite Rwanda meeting East African Community (EAC) standards.